What to Lead?
Here's your hand as West and dummy's which is your LHO:
Auction:
West North East South
1D P 1H
P 1S P 2C
P 2D P 2N
P 3N P P
P
North
♠
AQ63
♥
A
♦
AJT942
♣
53
West
♠ T852
♥ QT54
♦ 5
♣ Q953
North
♠
AQ6
♥
♦
AJT9
♣
West
♠ T85
♥ QT54
♦
♣
You can lead either a spade or a heart. You've got your
book, so all you need is one more trick to set the contract. What do you lead?
You look at the board and realize that all four diamonds are good. If declarer
has the king of spades, the hand is over if you lead a spade. But who has the
king of spades? Maybe declarer has both the king of spades and the king of hearts. If so, the hand is over anyway. But if
declarer has the king of hearts and not the king of spades, you can only set
the contract if you lead a spade.
You shouldn't be tempted to lead through the void because
declarer's first call was hearts and her second call of 2C should promise five
hearts. Also, if she bid a five card suit, you can clearly see that she lacks
the AQT. Did she bid a five card suit headed by only the J empty fifth? While
that's not impossible, it's implausible. Further, if she lacks both the king
and the queen, would she immediately lead to the singleton ace of hearts?
Unlikely because that would give you two heart tricks if you got in.
Another factor mitigating against your leading hearts is
that you are undoubtedly giving her two heart tricks because you will be
leading into her KJ from your queen. Since you have the queen, that gives her
two tricks to take and sluff her two losing spades on. The facts that she bid
hearts, that you have the queen ten, and that she immediately led to the
singleton Ace all mitigate towards the conclusion that she has the king of
hearts and that your partner could have the king of spades.
In the actual hand, West led a heart from her queen-ten,
giving declarer two heart tricks so she could sluff the two spade losers and
make the contract. Here's the four hand layout:
North
♠
AQ63
♥
A
♦
AJT942
♣
53
West East
♠ T852 ♠
KJ4
♥ QT54 ♥
973
♦ 5 ♦ Q87
♣ Q953 ♣
KJ73
South
♠
97
♥
KJ862
♦
K63
♣
AT8
By leading a spade, declarer either has to finesse
immediately and lose the king, or go up with the ace, run the diamonds and then
lose the last two tricks. But even if she finesses and loses the king, a savvy
East will take the king and immediately return a diamond, putting her back on
the board so she'll still lose two spade tricks and go down 2. A heart lead
makes the contract.
This isn't even a thinker. You must lead a spade. If
declarer has the king, then she makes the contract. The odds that she lacks the
king of hearts (along with the Ace, Queen, and Ten), the suit she bid, are slim
and none. So you have little to lose by leading the spade.